Back to the past for Macau gambling

Shareholders in Macau gambling companies must be hoping that analysts have got it right in their assessments this week that the worst may be over in Macau, with share prices are starting to stabilise after a trying period when business fell off under the dual pressure of China’s slowing economy and a crackdown on corruption.

Bloomberg business news analysts have calculated that casino shares in the island gambling haven have plunged 50 percent since their all-time peak in the heady days of January 2014. Back then monthly reports showed ever higher revenues as Macau overtook even Las Vegas in financial volumes.

On the run-up to that peak, casino stocks benefitted, almost doubling in 2013.

“Macau casino stocks have round-tripped, rallying in 2013 on accelerating growth and then reversing in 2014 and 2015 as revenue tumbled,” one analyst opined this week, noting that casino revenues have reached their lowest levels since 2011 at 21.5 billion patacas ($2.7 billion) in March 2015.

Analysts at BNP Paribas said that this indicated the worst is over and the market is stabilising, but noted that it may take a while before any significant upturn takes place.

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